通过上面的$RTU的PF曲线可以看出，空头很难控制市场。
市场头一小时和最后一小时发展很快。上午没有交易。在大部分时间内，市场的高低点都出现头一小时内，我的计算方法无法得出成功率高的判断。下午感觉空头有优势，交易了一次$TZA，基本成功。
2012年2月29日星期三
今日交易 - 贪婪的华尔街
今天出了一些利多的消息，欧洲央行发放低息贷款，美国GDP，PMI超出预期。但牛市只维持了一个小时。Bernanke的讲话没有涉及新的刺激计划，令市场很失望。股市下跌，黄金暴降。贪婪的华尔街。
通过上面的$RTU的PF曲线可以看出，空头很难控制市场。
市场头一小时和最后一小时发展很快。上午没有交易。在大部分时间内，市场的高低点都出现头一小时内，我的计算方法无法得出成功率高的判断。下午感觉空头有优势，交易了一次$TZA，基本成功。
通过上面的$RTU的PF曲线可以看出，空头很难控制市场。
市场头一小时和最后一小时发展很快。上午没有交易。在大部分时间内，市场的高低点都出现头一小时内，我的计算方法无法得出成功率高的判断。下午感觉空头有优势，交易了一次$TZA，基本成功。
2012年2月28日星期二
今日交易 - 乐观的美国人
今天DOW终于收在13000上了，是2008年5月以来的第一次。挺佩服美国人的乐观精神的。今天美国的多项经济数据很差，唯一的亮点是二月消费者信心指数。随着消费者信心上涨的还有信用卡帐单。S&P500和NASDAQ也高收。RUSSELL2000下跌。市场存在分化。黄金大涨。
希望黄金不要涨得太快。交易了一次$TNA，基本成功。计算的价格区间与实际基本一致。没有抓住$TZA的机会。采用的方法侧重于安全的方向，不利于把握利润大的方向。还需要调整。没有变化头寸，尝试做空。
希望黄金不要涨得太快。交易了一次$TNA，基本成功。计算的价格区间与实际基本一致。没有抓住$TZA的机会。采用的方法侧重于安全的方向，不利于把握利润大的方向。还需要调整。没有变化头寸，尝试做空。
2012年2月27日星期一
2012年2月24日星期五
2012年2月22日星期三
2012年2月21日星期二
2012年2月20日星期一
2012年2月17日星期五
2012年2月15日星期三
锻炼 - 健身，节食 - 减肥
有位同事拿了个测脂肪比例的仪器（欧姆龙的）到办公室。我也测量了一下，脂肪比例17%。我没有什么概念。不过比我旁边卧推300磅的猛男低些。
平时锻炼没有注意热量的消耗值。今天听大家议论就留心了一下。我跑步12分钟，2350米，消耗了170卡路里。回家看了一下可口可乐，一罐中的热量是160卡路里。估计锻炼后吃下的芝士蛋糕得有个800，1000卡路里吧。看来减肥的关键不自于锻炼，而在于节食。
要健身去锻炼，要减肥得节食。
美国有个真人秀Biggest Loser。里面大家咬牙切齿锻炼的场面都是噱头，大家一定都是挨饿瘦下去的。
另外，上周三出事故受伤的那位健身者还没有出现。
平时锻炼没有注意热量的消耗值。今天听大家议论就留心了一下。我跑步12分钟，2350米，消耗了170卡路里。回家看了一下可口可乐，一罐中的热量是160卡路里。估计锻炼后吃下的芝士蛋糕得有个800，1000卡路里吧。看来减肥的关键不自于锻炼，而在于节食。
要健身去锻炼，要减肥得节食。
美国有个真人秀Biggest Loser。里面大家咬牙切齿锻炼的场面都是噱头，大家一定都是挨饿瘦下去的。
另外，上周三出事故受伤的那位健身者还没有出现。
2012年2月14日星期二
技术特点分析 - $TNA
2012-02
当日交易
1. 上涨时间区间与下跌时间区间大致相等。
2. 出现大幅回调后，早期买入点技术特征：在3分钟Stochatic/Stochatic RSI曲线中，在20水平线下方形成双底或三底；时间跨度与先前的上涨时间大致相等，一般超过30分钟。
3. 出现大幅回调后，晚期买入点技术特征：在3分钟MACD曲线中快速线自下而上穿越；3分钟Stochatic/Stochatic RSI数值超过50。
4. 当前当日大幅回调范围在$1.5-4（当前股价为$62），多出现在上午。
5. 出现次一级回调，在尝试而没有突破支撑线情况下，可以在自下向上穿越Stochatic/ Stochatic RSI 20水平线时买入。
6. 牛市回调时，Stochatic/Stochatic RSI在20以下时间较短。
一定要注意重要信息发布的时间，最后避开。
当日交易
1. 上涨时间区间与下跌时间区间大致相等。
2. 出现大幅回调后，早期买入点技术特征：在3分钟Stochatic/Stochatic RSI曲线中，在20水平线下方形成双底或三底；时间跨度与先前的上涨时间大致相等，一般超过30分钟。
3. 出现大幅回调后，晚期买入点技术特征：在3分钟MACD曲线中快速线自下而上穿越；3分钟Stochatic/Stochatic RSI数值超过50。
4. 当前当日大幅回调范围在$1.5-4（当前股价为$62），多出现在上午。
5. 出现次一级回调，在尝试而没有突破支撑线情况下，可以在自下向上穿越Stochatic/ Stochatic RSI 20水平线时买入。
6. 牛市回调时，Stochatic/Stochatic RSI在20以下时间较短。
一定要注意重要信息发布的时间，最后避开。
2012年2月13日星期一
2012年2月12日星期日
2012年2月11日星期六
上班路上，路杀（roadkill）
昨天早晨在上班路上压死了一只灰色的松鼠。是我遭遇的第一次路杀事件（roadkill）。当时转过一个弯，突然发现一只松鼠出现车前，已经来不及做出任何反应，只能祝愿松鼠幸运了。不幸的是右后轮送松鼠上天堂了。真是很抱歉。以前躲过几次过马路的小鹿、松鼠、树熊、花栗鼠。还有些大雁，明明会飞，还要溜达着过马路。
人类改变了环境，野生动物（还幸存的）很难适应。我的一位同事看到过一只树熊或野狼在过马路时会过一个车道停下来，观察一下再过下一个。大多数动物是没有这个本领。
人类改变了环境，野生动物（还幸存的）很难适应。我的一位同事看到过一只树熊或野狼在过马路时会过一个车道停下来，观察一下再过下一个。大多数动物是没有这个本领。
2012年2月10日星期五
2012年2月9日星期四
2012年2月8日星期三
YMCA出现严重事故
YMCA出现严重事故
二月八日晚七点半左右，在YMCA的二楼健身房出现严重运动伤害事故。有一位身体健壮的猛男在练习立定跳高时不慎失去平衡，后脑着地，受到严重撞击。他一度身体抽搐。事故发生就在一瞬间，前一秒钟我还和他打了个招呼，我一低头就听见一声巨响，一抬头发现他躺在地上无法移动。
给大家的教训是锻炼一定要做好准备，不做没有把握的项目。我和猛男经常见面，我们经常在等待锻炼腹肌的器械，说过几次话。他几乎全部是练力量，没有见过他练习柔韧，也没有看见他跑步。立定跳高看上去简单，但是如果柔韧性不好，很容易出现拉伤，导致身体失去平衡。
另外YMCA要求会员随身携带会员卡，还是挺有道理的。在今天的事故后可以通过会员卡的信息通知其家人。
出现这种事大家都挺揪心的。他被固定在担架后恢复了知觉，试图举手调整头部的固定支架。希望他能够早日康复。
二月八日晚七点半左右，在YMCA的二楼健身房出现严重运动伤害事故。有一位身体健壮的猛男在练习立定跳高时不慎失去平衡，后脑着地，受到严重撞击。他一度身体抽搐。事故发生就在一瞬间，前一秒钟我还和他打了个招呼，我一低头就听见一声巨响，一抬头发现他躺在地上无法移动。
给大家的教训是锻炼一定要做好准备，不做没有把握的项目。我和猛男经常见面，我们经常在等待锻炼腹肌的器械，说过几次话。他几乎全部是练力量，没有见过他练习柔韧，也没有看见他跑步。立定跳高看上去简单，但是如果柔韧性不好，很容易出现拉伤，导致身体失去平衡。
另外YMCA要求会员随身携带会员卡，还是挺有道理的。在今天的事故后可以通过会员卡的信息通知其家人。
出现这种事大家都挺揪心的。他被固定在担架后恢复了知觉，试图举手调整头部的固定支架。希望他能够早日康复。
2012年2月7日星期二
超级碗（Super Bowl），麦当娜（Madonna），刘晓庆
没有观看上周日的超级碗决赛，不是很喜欢。就像是西餐，偶尔吃点还好，本质上还是不太对路。听说53岁麦当娜出现在半场休息的演出，在Youtube上观看了一下影像。感觉闹哄哄的，唱得也不好。麦当娜大姐年轻时看上去很老，老了看上去很年轻。这点和刘晓庆差不多。
麦当娜比起现在的Lady Gaga，Pink等像个纯洁的婴儿了。社会在变化。很久没有听新的歌曲了。平常听最多的都是几十年的老歌了，Hotel California, Wish You Were Here。
麦当娜比起现在的Lady Gaga，Pink等像个纯洁的婴儿了。社会在变化。很久没有听新的歌曲了。平常听最多的都是几十年的老歌了，Hotel California, Wish You Were Here。
45 Years In Wall Street
William D Gann
CHAPTER I
CHAPTER II RULES FOR TRADING IN STOCKS
The Time change is more important than reversal in price.
Rule 9. Buy on Higher Tops and Bottoms
Buy when the market is making higher Tops and higher Bottoms which shows that the main trend is up. Sell when the market is making lower Tops and lower Bottoms which indicates the main trend is down.
Rule 10. Change in Trend in Bull Market
A change in trend often occurs just before or just after holidays.
Rule 11. Safest Buying and Selling Points
It is always safest to buy stocks after a definite Change in Trend has been established.
Rule 12. Price Gains in Fast Moves
When the Movement on Average or individual stocks is 2 points or more per day, it is far above normal and does not last very long.
TWENTY-FOUR NEVER-FAILING RULES
1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade when you make it with a stop loss order 3 to 5 points away.
3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rule.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit of 3 points or more, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.
5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts.
6. When in doubt, get out, and don't get in when in doubt.
7. Trade only in active stocks. Keep our of slow, dead ones.
8. Equal distribution of risk. Trade in 4 or 5 stocks, if possible. Avoid tying up all your capital in any one stock.
9. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.
10. Don't close your orders without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
11. Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of panic.
12. Never buy just to get a dividend.
13. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.
14. Never get our of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
19. Never buy just because the price of a stock is low or sell short just because the price is high.
20. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the stock is very active and has crossed Resistance Levels before buying more and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.
21. Select the stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramiding one the buying side and the ones with the largest volume of stock outstanding to sell short.
22. Never hedge. If you are long of one stock and it starts to go down, do not sell another stock short to hedge it. Get out at the market; take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
23. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to some definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.
24. Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period a profitable trades.
My rules -
1. Do not hold triple leveraged ETFs (FAS/FAZ, TNA/TZA) overnight, unless there is enough profit margin, 2%.
SAFETY OF CAPITAL
You can always find new opportunities to make profits, so long as you have capital to operate with. Taking heavy risks in the beginning endangers your capital and impairs your judgment.
STOP LOSS ORDERS
An investor or trader will place a stop loss order and one time out of ten the stop will be caught at the exact top or bottom. After this he always remembers that and says, "If I place a stop loss order, they will just go down and catch it, or just go up and catch it and then the market will go the order way." So he does not use the stop loss order the next time. The trader forgets that nine times out of ten the stop loss order was right and would have prevented big losses by getting him out at a time when the market was going against him. The one time that the stop loss order gets you out wrong it makes up for it in the next nine times that it gets you out right. So don't fail to use a stop loss order.
CHANGING YOUR MIND
A wise man changes his mind; a fool never.
OVERTRADING
History repeats because of the weakness of human nature.
HOW TO ANSWER A MARGIN CALL
When you make a trade and put up the required margin at the time and later the stock goes against you and the broker calls for more margin, the thing to do in most cases is not to put up more margin, but sell out at the market or buy in in case you are short.
Nine times out of ten after a customer puts up margin the first time, he will hold on until there is a second margin call and a third and put up as long as he has money to put up and lose all of his capital on one trade. If the broker has to call you for margin, there is something wrong, and the best thing to do is to get out.
JOINT ACCOUNT
It is hard for one mind to work on the stock market and keep right, but it is much harder for two to agree and work in the market.
It is a bad rule for a man and his wife to have a joint account together. The action of getting in and out of the market should be up to one man, who should learn to act and act quickly and not be influenced by a partner in a speculative deal.
WHAT TRADERS DON'T WANT TO KNOW
The average trader does not want to hear a painful truth. They want something in accordance with what they hope for. When they buy a stock they believe all the news, rumors, views and lies that are bullish, but just let some report come out that is bad or let someone tell him something unfavorable about the stock he has bought and he refuses to believe it.
Real inside truth about losses in Wall Street is seldom ever told. Traders, big and little, always talk about their profits and brag about their successful trades, but keep quiet about their losses.
The new lamb should know that failing to place a stop loss order and overtrading have been the cause of over 90 per cent of the failures in Wall Street.
HUMAN ELEMENT THE GREATEST WEAKNESS
The investor and trader must work out his own salvation and blame himself and no one else for his losses, for unless he does, he will never be able to correct his weaknesses.
Always remember that it is your mistake that causes losses and not the action of the market or the manipulators.
CHAPTER III HOW TO SELECT INDEPENDENT MOVERS
Buying One Stock and Selling Another Short
There are many times when you can sell one stock short at a High Level and buy another stock that is selling at a Low Level and the prices of these stocks will come together and you will make profits on both.
CHAPTER IV PERCENTAGE OF HIGH AND LOW PRICES
One of the greatest discoveries I ever made was how to figure the percentage of high and low prices on the averages and individual stocks. The percentage of extreme high and low levels indicate future resistance levels.
The most important resistance level is 50% of any high or low price.
Second in importance is 100% on the lowest selling price on the average or individual stocks.
Third in importance is 25% of the Lowest price or Highest price.
Fourth in importance is 12.5% of the extreme Low or extreme High price.
Fifth in importance is 6.25% of the Highest price, but this is only to be used when the average or individual stocks are selling at very high levels.
Sixth in importance is 33.3% and 66.7%. These percentages should be calculated and watched for resistance next after 25% and after 50%.
Stocks Selling Below 50 Per Cent Level
It is very important when a stock breaks 50% or one-half between the extreme high and extreme low level. When it does not get support and holds at this level, it is in a very weak position and indicates a decline to 75% down or more between extreme high and extreme low.
Do not buy stocks after they get below this level until you see an indication of support based on all of the rules.
MARKET ACTION PROVES THE RULES
CHAPTER V TIME PERIODS OF SHORT DURATION CORRECT PRICES
Remember, when you do make a mistake or see that you are wrong, the way to correct it is to get out of the market immediately, or best of all when you make trade, place a Stop Loss Order for the protection of your capital.
CHAPTER VI TIME PERIODS FOR IMPORTANT SWINGS ON THE AVERAGES
CHAPTER VII DOW JONES 30 INDUSTRIAL AVERAGES 3-DAY CHART MOVES
CHAPTER I
CHAPTER II RULES FOR TRADING IN STOCKS
The Time change is more important than reversal in price.
Rule 9. Buy on Higher Tops and Bottoms
Buy when the market is making higher Tops and higher Bottoms which shows that the main trend is up. Sell when the market is making lower Tops and lower Bottoms which indicates the main trend is down.
Rule 10. Change in Trend in Bull Market
A change in trend often occurs just before or just after holidays.
Rule 11. Safest Buying and Selling Points
It is always safest to buy stocks after a definite Change in Trend has been established.
Rule 12. Price Gains in Fast Moves
When the Movement on Average or individual stocks is 2 points or more per day, it is far above normal and does not last very long.
TWENTY-FOUR NEVER-FAILING RULES
1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade when you make it with a stop loss order 3 to 5 points away.
3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rule.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit of 3 points or more, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.
5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts.
6. When in doubt, get out, and don't get in when in doubt.
7. Trade only in active stocks. Keep our of slow, dead ones.
8. Equal distribution of risk. Trade in 4 or 5 stocks, if possible. Avoid tying up all your capital in any one stock.
9. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.
10. Don't close your orders without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
11. Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of panic.
12. Never buy just to get a dividend.
13. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.
14. Never get our of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
19. Never buy just because the price of a stock is low or sell short just because the price is high.
20. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the stock is very active and has crossed Resistance Levels before buying more and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.
21. Select the stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramiding one the buying side and the ones with the largest volume of stock outstanding to sell short.
22. Never hedge. If you are long of one stock and it starts to go down, do not sell another stock short to hedge it. Get out at the market; take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
23. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to some definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.
24. Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period a profitable trades.
My rules -
1. Do not hold triple leveraged ETFs (FAS/FAZ, TNA/TZA) overnight, unless there is enough profit margin, 2%.
SAFETY OF CAPITAL
You can always find new opportunities to make profits, so long as you have capital to operate with. Taking heavy risks in the beginning endangers your capital and impairs your judgment.
STOP LOSS ORDERS
An investor or trader will place a stop loss order and one time out of ten the stop will be caught at the exact top or bottom. After this he always remembers that and says, "If I place a stop loss order, they will just go down and catch it, or just go up and catch it and then the market will go the order way." So he does not use the stop loss order the next time. The trader forgets that nine times out of ten the stop loss order was right and would have prevented big losses by getting him out at a time when the market was going against him. The one time that the stop loss order gets you out wrong it makes up for it in the next nine times that it gets you out right. So don't fail to use a stop loss order.
CHANGING YOUR MIND
A wise man changes his mind; a fool never.
OVERTRADING
History repeats because of the weakness of human nature.
HOW TO ANSWER A MARGIN CALL
When you make a trade and put up the required margin at the time and later the stock goes against you and the broker calls for more margin, the thing to do in most cases is not to put up more margin, but sell out at the market or buy in in case you are short.
Nine times out of ten after a customer puts up margin the first time, he will hold on until there is a second margin call and a third and put up as long as he has money to put up and lose all of his capital on one trade. If the broker has to call you for margin, there is something wrong, and the best thing to do is to get out.
JOINT ACCOUNT
It is hard for one mind to work on the stock market and keep right, but it is much harder for two to agree and work in the market.
It is a bad rule for a man and his wife to have a joint account together. The action of getting in and out of the market should be up to one man, who should learn to act and act quickly and not be influenced by a partner in a speculative deal.
WHAT TRADERS DON'T WANT TO KNOW
The average trader does not want to hear a painful truth. They want something in accordance with what they hope for. When they buy a stock they believe all the news, rumors, views and lies that are bullish, but just let some report come out that is bad or let someone tell him something unfavorable about the stock he has bought and he refuses to believe it.
Real inside truth about losses in Wall Street is seldom ever told. Traders, big and little, always talk about their profits and brag about their successful trades, but keep quiet about their losses.
The new lamb should know that failing to place a stop loss order and overtrading have been the cause of over 90 per cent of the failures in Wall Street.
HUMAN ELEMENT THE GREATEST WEAKNESS
The investor and trader must work out his own salvation and blame himself and no one else for his losses, for unless he does, he will never be able to correct his weaknesses.
Always remember that it is your mistake that causes losses and not the action of the market or the manipulators.
CHAPTER III HOW TO SELECT INDEPENDENT MOVERS
Buying One Stock and Selling Another Short
There are many times when you can sell one stock short at a High Level and buy another stock that is selling at a Low Level and the prices of these stocks will come together and you will make profits on both.
CHAPTER IV PERCENTAGE OF HIGH AND LOW PRICES
One of the greatest discoveries I ever made was how to figure the percentage of high and low prices on the averages and individual stocks. The percentage of extreme high and low levels indicate future resistance levels.
The most important resistance level is 50% of any high or low price.
Second in importance is 100% on the lowest selling price on the average or individual stocks.
Third in importance is 25% of the Lowest price or Highest price.
Fourth in importance is 12.5% of the extreme Low or extreme High price.
Fifth in importance is 6.25% of the Highest price, but this is only to be used when the average or individual stocks are selling at very high levels.
Sixth in importance is 33.3% and 66.7%. These percentages should be calculated and watched for resistance next after 25% and after 50%.
Stocks Selling Below 50 Per Cent Level
It is very important when a stock breaks 50% or one-half between the extreme high and extreme low level. When it does not get support and holds at this level, it is in a very weak position and indicates a decline to 75% down or more between extreme high and extreme low.
Do not buy stocks after they get below this level until you see an indication of support based on all of the rules.
MARKET ACTION PROVES THE RULES
CHAPTER V TIME PERIODS OF SHORT DURATION CORRECT PRICES
Remember, when you do make a mistake or see that you are wrong, the way to correct it is to get out of the market immediately, or best of all when you make trade, place a Stop Loss Order for the protection of your capital.
CHAPTER VI TIME PERIODS FOR IMPORTANT SWINGS ON THE AVERAGES
CHAPTER VII DOW JONES 30 INDUSTRIAL AVERAGES 3-DAY CHART MOVES
2012年2月6日星期一
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2012年2月2日星期四
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