Tree

影帝 - 好大一棵树

Published: October 25, 2012, by The New York Times

The Wen Family Empire

Beginning with diamonds in the 1990s, the relatives of Wen Jiabao amassed a fortune by forming a complex business network that bought stakes in sectors as varied as real estate and telecommunications. Corporate records reviewed by The Times show that a tight-knit group of about 20 relatives and friends made investments that were sometimes aided by Asia’s wealthiest tycoons. By far the biggest source of the wealth came from investments in Ping An Insurance, China’s biggest financial services company. Related Article »

PRESIDENT

VICE PRESIDENT

OWNER

OWNER

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

DIRECTOR

DIRECTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

LEGAL

REPRESENTATIVE

DIRECTOR

LEGAL

REPRESENTATIVE

C.E.O.

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

CO-FOUNDER

CO-FOUNDER

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

INVESTOR

C.E.O.

DIRECTOR

DIRECTOR

DIRECTOR

INVESTOR

LEGAL

REPRESENTATIVE

FORMED A JOINT VENTURE

WITH NEW WORLD CYBERBASE

LEGAL

REPRESENTATIVE

SOLD TO

DALIAN HAICHANG

DAUGHTER

WIFE

WIFE’S BROTHER

WIFE’S

BROTHER

SON’S WIFE

SON

WIFE’S

COLLEAGUE

BROTHER’S

COLLEAGUE

BROTHER

SON’S COLLEAGUE

MOTHER

MERGED WITH

P.C.C.W.

SOLD TO A

SUBSIDIARY

OF CHINA.COM

ZHANG BEILI

WEN JIABAO

WEN JIAHONG AND WIFE

YANG XIAOMENG AND PARENTS

WEN YUNSONG

ZHANG JIANMING

ZHANG JIANKUN

WANG ZHUANGLI

YU JIANMING

$74 million

Worked for a diamond

company linked to Zhang Beili.

A shareholder in several Wen

family-related companies.

$1 million*

$75 million

$1.4 billion*

$14 billion

$1.3 billion

$176 million

$416 million

$110 million

$1 million

$120 million

KEY

YANG ZHIYUN

Worked at Credit

Suisse. Held

shares of a

Chinese jewelry

company called

Gallop.

The richest man in Hong

Kong for much of the last

decade, with a net worth

of $22 billion. He controls

the Hong Kong

conglomerate Hutchison

Whampoa.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Hong Kong

Dalian

Hong Kong

Beijing

LI

KA-SHING

Hong Kong’s

second-richest man.

Controls New World

Development, with real

estate, infrastructure and

retail business holdings,

including the world’s

biggest jewelry store

chain, Chow Tai Fook.

CHENG

YU-TUNG

The former chief executive

of the CDC Corporation, a

Chinese technology

company. One of its major

shareholders was New

World Development, which

is controlled by the Hong

Kong tycoon Cheng

Yu-tung.

PETER

YIP

Wealthy businessman

from northern China

who controls Dalian

Haichang. Has interests

in chemicals, plastics

and diamonds. Forbes

puts his net worth at

$770 million.

QU

NAIJIE

Also known as Vincent

Cheng. A reclusive

philanthropist and

business associate of the

Hong Kong tycoon Cheng

Yu-tung. Once controlled

three investment vehicles

with 300 million shares in

Ping An.

ZHENG

JIANYUAN

One of China’s wealthiest

women and the founder

of Taihong, the Great

Ocean Group and Airport

City Logistics. Her

Kaifeng Foundation gives

to Harvard University and

Beijing’s Tsinghua

University.

DUAN

WEIHONG

Also known as Yang Xiu’an, the

90-year-old mother owned

investments in Ping An

Insurance worth $120 million.

Control energy, engineering and waste

treatment companies; his wife held a

major stake in Ping An.

An expert in gems and a force in

the nation’s diamond trade. She

met Wen Jiabao while both were

working as government geologists

in Gansu Province.

Invested in diamond

companies with his

sister's colleagues.

Former government bureaucrat who

invested in diamond companies

backed by his sister, as well as real

estate and highway infrastructure.

Hold shares in family-related

companies, including a company that

owns part of Union Mobile Pay. Parents

once held big Ping An stake.

Holds engineering degrees, and

an M.B.A. from Northwestern’s

Kellogg School of Business.

Co-founder of New Horizon

Capital. Chairman of China

Satellite Communications.

Worked briefly at McKinsey in Los Angeles. Co-founded

the private equity firm New Horizon Capital. Helps control

a string of investment vehicles tied to the Wen family.

PRIME MINISTER OF CHINA

Nicknamed Grandpa Wen

because of his concern for

the underprivileged, he has

called official corruption a

threat to the ruling

Communist Party.

WEN RUCHUN

ZHANG YUHONG

Vice president at Hanyang

Investment. Grew up in Tianjin.

Helps control investment firms

tied to the Wen family.

The family

built a fortune

by forming

business networks

aided by

wealthy

tycoons

Hanyang

Investment

Grey type

Blue type

Value of Ping An stake

Shell company

Operational company

Business relationship

Colleague of Wen family

Member of Wen family

Go2Joy

New

Horizon

Capital

Xuanda

Sheng

Churui

Union

Mobile Pay

Unihub

Sino-

Diamond

Xinyuan

Liandong

Tianjin

Taihong

National

Trust

*Values of Ping An shares are figured as of January or October 2007 (latest records available), except where asterisked. Asterisked values are as of 2004. Shares attributed to Duan Weihong were owned through her mother. Those owned by Qu Naijie were through his company, Dalian Haichang. Those owned by Cheng Yu-Tung and Zheng Jianyuan were through multiple investment vehicles.

An earlier version of this graphic referred incorrectly to Li Ka-Shing’s son, Richard Li. He does not in fact control part of the Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa.

再说中国足球的12分钟跑

今天看了新浪上的一篇文章《彭伟国：梅西都过不了中国体测 叹中国足球走弯路》，在彭的微博上也有。这样就不是记者们臆造的了。

我一直很反感一些足球运动员，如郝、高、彭之类号称“技术好”的，指责当年中国足协的12分钟跑体能测试。当时足协推出体能测试的目的是强迫那些自律不严、体能不好的软脚运动员强化体能。于是就产生了一批体能困难户。当年就有人称马拉多纳、齐达内就过不了12分钟跑。现在又扯上了梅西。人家技术和你们是一个档次的吗？你知道人家跑不下来吗？

我33岁时在跑步机上练了3个月12分钟就能跑3250米。你们靠四肢吃饭的就不行了吗？别再把自己称球星了。现在中国足球不行，你们那时候也强不到哪里去。踏踏实实干些事情吧，别总放炮。还有如果自己当教练别收队员的钱。

Zhao and Jiang

不多说了，20世纪版官场现形记。

奥克维尔足球2012

天气变冷了，今年的户外足球活动结束了。不准备参加接下来的室内足球活动了，在冬季先恢复一下身体，养好伤病，再储备些体能。不喜欢室内足球，环境不如室外的好。

感谢活动的组织者，这个夏季又享受了足球的快乐。

奥克维尔足球10-6

上周末去参观白求恩故居，和去阿冈昆公园看红叶了，错过了同密西沙加(Mississauga)华人足球队的比赛。本周是同宾顿(Brampton)华人足球队比赛，我们是主场。上周比赛本队3：4失利，对手各方面明显高于我队。没想到本次宾顿球队的人员同上周密西沙加队差不多。

对方利用我方的失误很快进球，上半场未结束就4：0大比分领先。我队各方面都有明显的不足。我的位置一直在变化，除了守门员都打了。下半场快结束时又回到前锋位置。进了两个球，一个是角球用肩将球撞进，另一个是对方守门员和后卫配合失误捡漏进的。本场只射了3次门。上次比赛进球是22年前的事了。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 4 + 2 + 2，一共进44个球了。

九月股市交易

近来事情很多，放在股市的时间很少，因此交易不多。主要的一个意外时美联储推出了QE3。市场在此政策发布前后都有较大的上涨。几次做空都失败了。平仓了一些股票多头，手里现金仓位较高。

钓大马哈鱼（三文鱼）

又到了大马哈鱼洄游的季节了。我家不远处的一条小河是一些鱼的通道。河水浅的地方水深不到10厘米，大马哈鱼通过那里时脊背都在水面上。

昨天老丈人同其他两位老年钓鱼爱好者去捕鱼。他们原先的计划是用铁锹把鱼打晕，然后再拽到河岸。结果遭到其他钓鱼者的制止，大家的习俗是只允许用鱼钩捕鱼。这是人类对鱼类的一种保护吧。经过几个小时的奋战，他们捕捉到两条鱼。下图中是较小的一条，鱼卵是其中四分之一的。  

这种洄游的鱼的鱼肉是不适于食用的。可以老人们执意不肯扔掉鱼肉。以前他们在安大略湖钓到不少小鱼，告诉他们不能有污染，不能食用，钓到鱼后马上给放了。他们不听，还振振有词地说“污染再严重能比得上中国吗？”。

奥克维尔足球9-22

天气越来越凉了。本次活动的地点是一个较小的标准场。由于来的人不够多，邀请了几个当地的初、高中学生一起踢。年轻人的动作就是灵活，速度、加速度都快。相比之下，真是老了。

忙了一天，身体状不好，射门质量很糟糕。最后总算抓住了队友制造的两次非常好的机会，进了两个球。大场进球难度还是大一些。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 4 + 2，一共进42个球了。

奥克维尔足球9-15

本次活动是一场友谊比赛，对手是中餐自助连锁店Mandarin伯灵顿（Burlington）店的员工足球队。由于对方时间限制，比赛是上午进行的。我方到场人员较多，大家轮换上场。比赛有些不太连贯。我踢了两个半场的前半段，有5次大力射门，力量、时机都很好，不过都没有打在球门内。我队2：3失利。

晚上有十几个人又一起踢了两个小时。这次踢进了4个球。还是要争取在比赛中进球。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 4，一共进40个球了。

奥克维尔足球9-8

本次活动同上次一样，先踢小场，人多了后转移到橄榄球场了。大家对足球运动还是非常积极参与的。

踢小场时对方防守比较严密。射门不多，总不开张。最后抓住了一次机会射中一球，是在对方3名防守队员的关照下完成的。到了大场，活动空间大了许多，对方防守队员距离远了许多。经过上次大场的适应机会，这次感觉好了很多。另外本队的风格比较简洁，前锋的机会也多。攻进了3个球，都是摆脱防守队员大力暴射射入的。还有两个助攻。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 4，一共进36个球了。

奥克维尔足球9-1

活动多了，例行的出场照省略了。

本次足球活动参加人数很多，开始踢小场，很快人满为患。于是大家换到了一个“大”场，是个美式橄榄球场。四边每边比足球场长约十米。可以踢17个人的比赛，一条线至少得4个人，踢4-4-4-4阵型。

在小场时状态很好，很快独中两元。但到了大场后没有感觉了。本队场面上处于下风，机会不多，也没有把握住一个。还好有两个助攻。第一次踢大场零进球。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2 + 3 + 2，一共进32个球了。

买车

今天买了辆皮卡F-150 XLT，开起来挺顺手的。这下子我也成为cool boy了。可以运送一些货物了。

等有钱买个F-150 Harley-Davidson就更酷了。

卖车

家里的生意需要一辆皮卡，只能把我的老雅阁给卖了。这车开了很多年了，很经济、可靠的车。孩子对它都有感情了，挺伤心的。

2008年夏天时油价很高，我按着最经济速度驾驶，加一次油能开800公里左右。最好一次54升油开了890公里。

周五下午发广告买车，周六下午就收了定金，今天做了交接。很好卖的车。

奥克维尔足球8-25

近来球队出现了点问题。球队的发起人事务比较繁忙，对球队的事情处理有些不够迅速，并且造成一定混乱。另外有些热心球员的热心积极引起了一些不愉快。此外还有些其它因素，总之球队处于混乱状态。鸡毛大点的事就协调不了了。

昨天下午的活动场地迟迟定不下来。再加上其它原因，我晚到了一个多小时。发现踢球人数是以前的一半左右。闹矛盾的人员都没有到，到的都是真正的足球爱好者。我仓促上场，踢了10分钟左右，进了三个球。人少进球很容易。大家就休息了。我以为是半场休息，后来发现大家都准备离开了。还没进入状态就散了。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2 + 3，一共进30个球了。

本周交易

周二把剩下的$LYG股票平仓了，损失约5%。建仓的时机不对，而且仓位有些高，应该早些处理掉。感觉$LYG要转入下降通道了，周期要2-3个月。$LYG是近来操作很差的一个。由于仓位高，错过了六月一次很好的建仓机会。$LYG是我比较喜欢的股票，在我全时做交易的两个月，做股票当日交易有近30%的利润。


总认为上一个错误是最后一个错误，紧接着就犯同样的错误。交易股票与拳击比赛有些相似的地方，在拳击比赛中不会每次进攻都会击中对手，或是一击就会将对手打倒出局。比赛中需要不停的试探，观察，等待机会。当出手不中时立刻要做的是进行防守。

交易人员预料美联储会考虑宽松政策，$GLD在周三美联储会议记录发布前持续上涨。在信息发布前，我卖出了COVERED CALL锁定近来的上涨。$GLD在信息发布后大涨，COVERED CALL暂时亏损。

$BMO

奥克维尔足球8-18

今天的球踢得很郁闷，射门不少就是不进球。浪费太多机会都不好意思出脚了。踢了近两个小时，只进了2个球。！主要是自己发挥不好，另外防守队员水平也在提高。

踢完球发现大脚趾还磨了个水泡。真是不顺利。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7 + 2，一共进27个球了。

本周交易

本周大部分时间在观察。周一建立的$SPY的看空CALL SPREAD，周五平仓。本周市场持续上涨，CALL SPREAD亏损。周五卖掉了一半的$LYG股票，亏损。增加了$BMO的看空期权。

北美股票交易计划

1 OTEX，基于季报的交易

在公布企业季度盈利前的一段时间内，OTEX的股价的走向可以预示市场对其盈利数据的反应。这可能是内部人员交易的结果。在季报发布日的前几天，在日线上有个反向的调整。而在一天内的分钟线中可以发现和日线相反的趋势，可以发现明显的顶或底。OTEX的交易量不大，规律比较稳定。

下图是五月和八月季报前后的价格曲线 -

每次可以有两个机会建立相应仓位。如红圈所示。季报通常可以带来10-20%的价格变化。利用期权可以有100-500%的收益。可以在发布消息的第二天平仓。

基于季报的交易窗口是：一月底-二月初，四月底-五月初，七月底-八月初，十月底-十一月初。

OTEX面临市场挑战，长期趋势看空。

2012交易结果 -

八月做多成功。
十月做空失败。



2 LYG，基于业绩、事件的交易
LYG的缺点是流动行很差。


2 BMO，基于股息的交易

BMO在两次发放股息（近5%）之间有个底，可以做多。

在发放股息后可以做空，在6-7周时平仓。

做多窗口大约是三月中，六月中，九月中，十二月中。做空窗口在股息发放一周左右。
BMO相对于其它加拿大银行偏空，价格随行业波动。

2012交易结果 -

七月做多盈利。过早平仓。







3 SINA，基于季报的交易

在八月季报前后，SINA的价格发展同本季度OTEX极为相象。在发布数据前，日线下降。在一天内有个底，形成时间较早，然后有买家进入，形成支持。表明没有内部人员抛售，可能股价会随季报上涨。

在前几个季度常常会有意外，意外是其真正的规律。把握这点很难，如果交易一定要低仓位。

2012交易结果 -

八月做多成功。但在季报前平仓，获利有限。可以用建立CALL SPREAD仓位。也可以短期交易D-I-M PUT，持仓时间为1-3小时。


4 RCI，基于周期的交易




5 LNKD，基于价值的交易

我认为相对于其盈利能力及潜力而言LNKD的股价过高，最终要崩盘的，如同NFLX。在崩盘前，在调整期做空，持有时间为1-2周。


ETF 观察

Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (Symbol: XLU).

This ETF is very liquid and well diversified with the leading electricity producers in the country: Duke Energy (DUK), Southern Company (SO), Dominion Resources (D), NextEra Energy (NEE), and Exelon (EXC) make up 40% of the ETF.

The ETF trades at 16 times earnings, a slight premium to the market.  It currently yields 4% annually from quarterly dividend distributions.  It even trades at a lower volatility with respect to the broad market indices, making it a more stable investment.

-IIFI，Costas Bocelli，2012-11-29



奥克维尔足球8-15

今天的天气很好，临时决定参加周三的足球活动。

开始时足球场地有队伍比赛。大家在旁边的板球场先踢。场地草比较高，开始有些不适应，几次推射都打在门柱上。但是场地大些，能够跑开。

腿上的伤好多了，可以多跑动一些。对方控制球的能力强些，有阵子踢得比较郁闷。本场进了7个球。有一个进球是队友传到我身后了，用脚跟从背后拨进去的，质量很高。最后两个球是利用突然上抢断下对方的球攻入的。利用变速让对手措手不及。

另外还有2个助攻。

2 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 5 + 7，一共进25个球了。

2012伦敦奥运闭幕

奥运会闭幕了。没有观看闭幕式，看了介绍有不少演艺名人表演。看了Queen的We will rock you的片断。发现Queen只剩下两个人了。不喜欢那个女歌手的表演。可能习惯了Freddie的风格，换了谁都会觉得变味了。英国很多年没有什么好的乐队的。

中国金牌、奖牌都第二，不错的成绩。现在人民开始思考了，有讨论中国的国家体制培养运动员是否正确。这是个进步。其实中国国民的运动条件还很差，群众体育不够好。与奥运第二的名次不符。我读大学时，学校非常重视体育教育，有个响亮的鼓励大家参加锻炼的口号“为祖国健康地工作50年”。但是普通学生根本就是把运动当作负担。后来我在新加坡国立大学时，发现那里的学生参加体育锻炼要活跃得多。有许多学生自发组织的团体。

奥克维尔足球第七场

这几天总下雨，今天也下了几次。活动前还有一阵子暴雨，活动耽误了几分钟。好在雨及时停了，来得人还不少。团购的队服到了，质量还不错。买了护腿板，这下子可以放松踢了，不然总是有些放不开。店里还有卖西班牙的队服，$99。

今天状态不好。今天很忙，早早起来，开了300公里的车，有些疲劳。今天控球、传球都不好，可能也和雨后场地湿滑有关。射门机会不少，浪费了许多，射进了5个球。总进球数达到18个。

下半场刚开始就被领导叫走做劳工了，有些遗憾。

本周交易

今天市场低开高走，延续了牛市。

本周的主要交易是处理上周增加的$OTEX多头仓位。根据上月底的曲线，判断$OTEX应该有中好的业绩报告，结合当前的牛市，上周同时买入的看多期权和股票。在昨天发报告前平仓了股票多头，获利8%。这样如果业绩不好，可以抵消部分期权的损失。计划中如果业绩非常好的情况下，期权可以获利900%。如果盈利不如预期，期权损失95%。在出报告前，期权有110%的利润。

昨天市后季度报告数据比预计的差很多，感觉开市后要大跌。计划平仓期权，做空股票。令人意外的是，股票开市后逐步上涨。在收益达到100%后平仓看多期权。在股票上涨5%后，空卖了少量股票。从操作上看，时机都不太好。主要是脑子总认为股票应该大跌。从基本面上看，看空$OTEX，这是一个在走向没落的公司，预计今年会达到多年新低。做空是正确的，但今天有些操之过急。有一句名言“当形势发展没有像想象的那么糟时，事情或许向好的方向发展”。

上周应该空卖$OTEX看空期权，可以在出报告前获利75%。这是一个很安全的操作。如果跟随市场走，今天的期权可以有300%的收益。错误的观点导致交易不很成功。

昨天买入了少量$SINA看多期权。今天开市后平仓，获利20%。

近几个月的牛市或许该结束了。下周可以尝试空卖$SPY的看多期权。

今日市场

今天是加拿大假日，多伦多股市休市。美国股市正常交易，交易量偏小。今天市场继续上周五的牛市，在高点时上涨近1%。收市前大幅度回落。在各国的经济刺激政策/承诺出台后，近两个月市场处于上升趋势中，短期剧烈震荡。

上周增加的多头仓位表现很好。如果业绩超出预期，会有很好的收益。上周应该空卖一定的看空期权。

奥克维尔足球第六场

昨天的活动6点开始的。由于是长周末，许多人出去旅游了，来的人不如前几次多。白天很热，晚上凉快一些了。由于回国缺席了两次周末的活动。另外，周三还有一次活动，不打算参加了。

经过一个半月的练习，大家的体力明显提高，对抗增强，进球减少了。旅行过后身体状态不是很好，失误较多，拼抢几次后体力不足。只有意识还好，优势很明显，但是得到的支持不够。抢点的机会不多，还经常给队友做球。做为中锋，这样效率就低了。攻入3个球。都是拼抢、对抗中射入的，比前10个精彩。另外还有两次助攻。

下次可以多跑动一些。从中场开始冲击。

今日交易

由于忙于其它事务，近来没有观察市场，得补补课了。

增加了$OTEX的看多期权，并买入了少量股票。下周出业绩报告。通常可以在前期发现方向。

雷雨相随的旅行

短期的中国探亲之旅结束了。这次旅行没有准备，突然听到奶奶病情急剧恶化，临时决定回家的。这次旅行路上非常不顺利，是我经历的最糟糕的一次。

7月20日在Newart换乘飞机时，航班晚点了3个半小时。这样就无法赶上21日北京飞大连的飞机了。盘算着得改签晚些的航班了，到家一定又是半夜了。飞机降落后发觉外面有雷雨，凭经验感觉事情会更糟了。果然由于北京雷雨天气，许多航班取消了。在国航的柜台前，排满了改机票的人。排了一个多小时队，被告知最早的座位是23日晚上的。我没有那么多时间等待，只能退票，准备改乘火车，虽然知道这个季节火车票十分抢手。乘坐机场大巴回到了北京市内。机场大巴真是方便，风雨无阻，而且十多年票价一直没有上涨。下了大巴还有2公里到家，小姨子和妹夫步行来迎接我的，因为所有道路都被泡水熄火的车堵住了。事情比我想象的更严重。在一个十字路口积了过膝的水，我拎着50多斤的箱子走了近百米路。还有个孕妇也在趟水。路上看到有车主用桶从车里排水的，有人用水泵从屋内排水的。

后来得知7月21日是北京有记录以来降水量最大的一天。北京机场有500多次航班被取消。北京死亡77人。

小姨子经过不懈努力终于帮我买到了22日去大连的火车票。火车票实名制很好。23日一早到了家。路上由于雷雨损失了一天两夜，这是宝贵的和奶奶在一起的时间。

奶奶的时间不多了。虽然她已经快89岁了，从理智上说能活到这个年纪已经没有遗憾了，但是事到临头还是非常难过。奶奶是个可敬的人，她照顾我一直到大学。在我五年级时爷爷去世了。家里只有我们两个人。我很感谢奶奶把我培养成一个好人。我记得她最常用的教育我话就是“你一定得考上大学，不然你爸妈一定会埋怨死我的”。就是这句话在督促我学习。到了初中我就知道考上重点大学是一定的了。到了高三，因为了一位女同学的话，也为了让奶奶开心，临时决定报考清华，有些超出我的能力了。经过大半年的努力，侥幸成功。奶奶那时真是非常非常的开心，这个开心一直伴随着她。后来我出国学习、结婚、生子，奶奶都非常高兴。但是我想她最开心的时候还是在我接到大学录取通知书时。

奶奶现在无法下地了，也几乎不吃饭了。由两个姑姑轮流照顾，她们真的很辛苦。我这次在家照顾她了7天。奶奶看到我很高兴，但是在后来的几天，她的情绪非常低落。她告诉我不用担心她，她活到这个年纪已经非常知足了，她让我把自己的生活安排好。六年前奶奶做了癌症手术，那时情形十分危险，但是情况一天得好转，充满了希望。现在这种回天无力的感觉真是很痛苦。

在大连的几天中，雷雨不断，在我离开那天格外大。乘火车到了北京后，北京又下了大雷雨。好像雷雨一直跟着我似的。在我启程的那天还在不断下雨。好在没有重复21日的暴雨。

回程开始还顺利，准时到芝加哥的，而且那里是晴天。但是过美国边检花了近两个小时。以后大家尽量不要在芝加哥进关。没想到的是今年干旱的多伦多也下起了雷雨。从那里起飞的加航航班被取消了，相应的我的从芝加哥飞多伦的航班也被取消了。好在搭上了2个小时后的美航回到了多伦多。但是行李没有能够同时到达，花了一个多小时挂失。希望不会有什么差错。

看到前来迎接的太太和女儿很高兴，她们也很辛苦，在机场等了5个多小时。到家时都凌晨两点多了。

奥克维尔足球第三场

由于上周六小腿肌肉拉伤，本周大部分时间走路都受到影响了，直到昨天才好。一直在犹豫是否参加本周的活动。一位同事说运动前多补充些水分，应该没事。

在向老婆、孩子保证一定要小心后，还是参加了今天的足球活动。没有能力跑动、拼抢，重在参与。站在对方门前等机会。竟然又进了4个，把握机会的水平提高了。

月底回中国呆两周。本月最后一次活动了。

奥克维尔足球第二场

本周足球改为晚上7点开始，没有那么热了。没想到这次来的人比第一次多许多，前后有20人了。

人多了机会就少了许多。今天进了4个球，浪费了4次机会。第一个球是全场第一个进球，大门、小门一起进的。下半场10分钟内连进3球。左腿的旧伤复发，不然可以再进2、3个。

还是打前锋省力气。下次争取进6个。太多了也不好。

在去球场的路上由于阴天，天色有些暗。脑子里突然出现了两句话 - 风高劫路时，月黑杀人夜。看来我挺适合暴力前锋的新位置。

再出江湖

挂靴两年后昨天参加了奥克维尔的华人足球活动。进了两个球（一个是倒勾），浪费了10次机会。下次争取进5个球。

活动一下挺好的。不过岁月不饶人啊，远不如两年前了。那时还和黑人、西班牙人、意大利人踢。现在脚都更不上思维了。

加拿大的运动设施比中国好很多。这种社区免费的草皮球场到处都是。

2012欧洲杯 六

欧洲杯落幕了。西班牙4：0完胜意大利。这支西班牙队可以称作历史上最伟大的国家队了。可以相提并论的只有贝利时的巴西队了。

意大利队年龄太大了，打到这个地步已经不容易了。

2012欧洲杯 五

欧洲杯只剩下决赛了，西班牙对意大利。今天意大利表现很好，把德国斩落马下。西班牙和意大利的守门员立了很大功劳。德国有些运气不佳，机会不少，但意大利的防守太好了。

进入四强正好是PIGS。有些意思。只是G是Germany，不是Greece。

巴神有个性，有水平。C罗还是没有成熟，不如老马，也比不上齐丹。

今日市场

上周日希腊大选，没有出现市场担心的结果。周一投资者预计的崩盘没有出现，市场反而大涨。今天对美联储宽松政策的期待带动市场继续上涨。经济数据还是很一般。

今日市场

美国的就业数据不够理想，近来大多不及预期值。市场没有受经济数据影响，上涨一个多点。英国推出了1000亿英镑的经济刺激计划。估计其它国家也会有类似的行动。估计今年在通货膨胀的影响下会是一个牛市。

今日市场

欧洲国债发售不很顺利，资金需求量大，投资者没有信心。美国的经济数据时好时坏。市场在下午出现抛售，下跌近一个点。

下周计划买入$AGNC的看空期权。

今日市场

市场大涨，把昨天的损失都补回来了。市场本周波动较大，结合上周，形成一定的牛市趋势。市场在等待救市资金。大规模通货膨胀不可避免了。大家都在一条船上，都得受影响。

2012欧洲杯 二

35岁舍瓦连进两球，给乌克兰带来了一场胜利。两个进球都非常清晰。

有人发现了规律，就是国家的经济不好时足球水平会高。还有个规律就是女生喜欢的球队、球员一般都表现欠佳。

中国球员跟人家比起来就是个渣。中国有世界著名的廉价劳动力，给世界人民给来了大量便宜的商品。不过中国球员是世界上性价比最差的雇员。

今日市场

上周的反弹今天结束了，市场高开，没有维持住，大跌收市。欧洲的资金需求量很大。欧洲杯踢得热热闹闹，债务危机也愈演愈烈。

2012欧洲杯 一

2012欧洲杯开始了。首日比赛捷克队输得很惨。2004年那支攻城拔寨如探囊取物、轻松战胜多个世界杯得主的队伍已经不复存在了。希腊队在欧洲杯比在世界杯中要好得多。希望他们能过给破产的希腊人民带来暂时的快乐。希腊球迷比中国球迷幸福。

中国足球队还是一如既往的萎靡，社会的腐败体现在各个方面，足球是牺牲品。足球这个赚钱的集体项目给了各个层次的人，从青少年教练到俱乐部主席到外国教练，贪污腐败的机会。能够滥竽充数的决不会浪费一个滥竽充数名额。

1986年世界杯后每次世界杯都是一次失望。也找不到第一次看意甲的兴奋了。

今日市场

市场在上周五大跌后稳定下来。进来欧洲问题不断，美国、中国的经济数据欠佳，熊市继续。市场在等待政府提出刺激计划。

今日市场

美国市场在节日后上涨。欧元区危机没有解除，但是各方会努力避免灾难性后果的。中国可能要刺激经济发展给投资者带来了信心。本周美国经济数据很多，但是近来美国数据对市场影响不大。

市场近来稳定下来了。还是高于年初的水平。或许要继续牛市了。

今日市场

市场比较动荡，多头、空头力量平均，投入一般。观望的情绪比较浓。

$FB的IPO不很成功，没有做出市场，没有买家。还有人起诉发行商。

明天考虑在低点增加一些多头仓位。

今日市场

今天市场上午一路下跌，接近回调低点。但下午一路上升，略微高收。是一个很完整的牛市反转。在充满不好消息的环境下，这种反转也许是调整结束的信号。

近来没有交易。考虑建立少量多头仓位。

今日市场

昨天是加拿大的维多利亚日，股市停止交易。本周市场停止了下跌，但是熊市气氛很很强。

继续观望。近来事情比较多，没有太多关注市场。手中的银行股损失较多。

今日市场

市场受欧洲形势左右，加速下跌。五月不能做多啊。

现在的价位倒是投资的好时机。交易的风险很大。

今日市场

市场高开，但牛市没有维持住，跌收。美联储还是旧调重弹，在必要时进行宽松。市场对美联储的反应是上涨了几秒钟又继续下跌了。调整继续进行中。

今日市场

市场还没有见底。明天美联储的态度很关键，大家在寻找一些线索。

现在的熊市随时结束，还是耐心等待吧。做空风险较大，还没有到做多的时机。

Dangerous person

昨天我把车停在同事家，乘他的车上班。下班回到他家门前时看到他的小儿子一个人在打篮球。我说小孩子一个人出来玩不安全。好像为了证明我的话，过来了一位长头发、戴墨镜的青年，走到同事小儿子跟前同他说话。我说“那人看上去听危险的”。同事大笑起来，说“那也是我的儿子”。他的大儿子原来是短发。听某个女孩子说他长头发很帅，就留起了长发。

I carpool with a colleague. Yesterday it was his turn to drive to office. I parked my car on his driveway. When we returned we saw his youngest son playing basketball by himself at front yard. I told him it is not safe for a young boy to play alone. To prove my words, a young man with long hair, big sunglasses passed by. The young man came very close to my colleague's son and said something to him. I said that young man's behavior looked dangerous. My colleague laughed and said "he is also my son".

今日市场

希腊问题又一次成为焦点。如果希腊像莱曼兄弟那样早些破产，世界经济会早些复苏。去过希腊的不少人都说希腊人懒得要命，不想做事情，爱吃救济。

市场这两周在稳步下跌，总体幅度不大。多头、空头在拉锯。大家在等美联储下一个宽松呢。先看着吧。

今日市场

欧洲问题又一次主导了市场的方向。这次的回调看来要持续一段时间了。大趋势还是牛市，空头的成果有限，在拉锯的时期，做多、做空股票都不容易。股指期货应该是好的载体。不过没有信心全时操作。

今日交易

市场对于欧洲政治局势的忧虑导致开市后大跌。随后买方力量占据上风，市场恢复了大度分损失。各指数下跌约0.5%。

平仓了昨日建立的$SPY多头，损失40%。昨天对于近期方判断不好。建仓的操作还正确，在昨天没有向上突破后就应该平仓。

大雁，小雁

公司周围的大雁回来了，这里是它们的繁殖地。有一对大雁已经有6只小雁了，毛绒绒的很可爱。昨天在安大略湖边的一个公园看到了几只小雁，个头明显要比公司的那几只大很多。可能是湖边气温高一些，水草比草坪的草营养丰富、更容易消化，因此小雁发育更好一些。

早晨发现一只大雁在用嘴用力啄公司的应急门。表情看上去很认真、严肃。原来公司的一位女士喂过大雁一家一些麦片，可能大雁们吃得比较满意，来要早餐了。那位女士只好再一次撒些麦片给大雁。不知道喂食大雁是否违法。在我居住的小镇，喂食草狼是违法的，可以被罚款$5000。

今日交易

市场对周日法国总统选举非常关注。上周五市场大跌就是担心左翼的社会主义总统候选人François Hollande当选。François Hollande果然赢得了选举，但今天一些人预计的暴跌没有出现，上周市场的走势已经反映了这个结果。西班牙决定援救本国银行，以及良好的德国经济数据缓解了一定的恐惧。除了DOW小降外，S&P 500和NASDAQ都微升。

在市场转为上升后，增加了本月$SPY的看多期权。上周的空头头寸结束有些太早，没有实现可观的盈利。

今日交易

欧洲经济衰退已经是事实，多严重还不好说。想想西班牙、希腊官方的超20%的失业率真是很可怕，得有小一半的适龄劳动力没有工作。美国ADP数据不好。市场在多重不好因素影响下，仍然停留在高位。但是近期的调整还是会有的。

结束了几笔空头仓位，胜败对半，整体盈利，但利润远远不及预期。希望能够抓住下一次回调的机会。

今日市场

五月通常是熊市。今天市场比较乐观，受了中、美经济数据的鼓舞。DOW创了金融危机以来的新高。市场分化严重。盈利数据好的暴涨，不好的暴跌。

现在观察$PCLN。可能受价值投资理念的影响，总试图做空那些不盈利的概念股。从次数上看失败居多，但是整体盈利。

近来在读一本书 The Market Wizards。感觉很有价值，可以在读过的投资、交易方面的书排前五位。最失望的是江恩的那些书。

今日市场

四月份结束了，市场经历了两次中等幅度的调整，历时较短。主要趋势仍然是牛市。各股票分化加深。企业的季报大多数超出期望值较低的预期。美国经济数据明显叫一季度差。欧洲经济问题回到视线内。

近来增加了一些空头，针对预计盈利可能不及预期的公司。本周就有结果了。在发布数据前会有一些迹象的。上周苹果在发布消息前大跌，结果盈利超出预期，一个交易日上涨约10%，但随后几天又继续下跌。说明市场是有自己的投票结果的。

今日市场

美联储给市场打了强心剂，继续上涨。美国就业数据不好。收入下降，负债上升。但企业业绩都不错。有些扭曲。

市后$AMZN发布数据后上涨13%。

今日交易

今天市场被苹果带动起来，继续了昨天的牛市。美国的经济数据不好，但对市场没有影响。美联储声明还在考虑宽松政策，市场反应很好。

增加了$LNKD的看空期权。但是$LNKD随后大涨，可能是受苹果的影响。如果$LNKD业绩好，股票会继续上涨，需要及时退出。

今日交易

美国经济数据近来明显不如年初了。应该是把调整空间留到竞选期间吧。市场上涨，没有形成连续下跌。这是近来的模式。企业季报对整个市场影响有限。市后苹果盈利又一次远远超出预期，应该把近来的损失挽回一些，市场对此次苹果的预期有些悲观。不知道苹果是否能带动牛市。明天的订单数据会更重要些。

增加了$LNKD的看空期权。下周四发布盈利数据。这几天市场在甩卖其股票，应该是有问题的（http://seekingalpha.com/article/521141-49-red-flags-heavy-insider-selling Given that management has sold nearly 10% of their original stake in just 2 months, my interpretation is that management believes the current price level is on the high side of fair value.）。不过市场对于苹果价格的方向完全错了。

The Market Wizards

In this book, there are great advice from very successful traders. It is cheaper to learn how to trade profitably from their experiences than from your own loss.

Michael Marcus - Blighting Never Strikes Twice

Bruce Kovner-The World Trader

making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money

First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure.

I almost always trade on a market view; I don't trade simply on technical information. I use technical analysis a great deal and it is terrific, but I can't hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.

The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.

It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.

In a bear market, you have to use sharp countertrend rallies to enter positions.

Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading.

First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half.

Richard Dennis-A Legend Retires

For a lot of traders, it doesn't matter so much whether their first big trade is successful or not, but whether their first big profit is on the long or short side. Those people tend to be perennial bulls or bears, and that is very bad.

at a minimum, it is important not to have a short position with a loss on Friday if the market closes at a high, or a long position if it closes at a low.

I made a particularly bad trade and lost about $300. Since I only had about $3,000, that was a very big loss and it was destabilizing. I then compounded the error by reversing my original position and losing again. To top things off, I then reversed back to my original position and lost a third time. By the end of the day, I had lost $1,000, or one-third of my entire capitalization.

I learned to avoid trying to catch up or double up to recoup losses. I also learned that a certain amount of loss will affect your judgment, so you have to put some time between that loss and the next trade.

I made a lot of money going short sugar at 60 cents, but I lost much more going long sugar at 6 cents.

You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don't think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do.

Demonstrably, commodities are trending and, arguably, stocks are random.

If you have any doubt about getting out as fast as possible in a situation like that, then you are really in big trouble.

The secret is being as short term or as long term as you can stand, depending on your trading style. It is the intermediate term that picks up the vast majority of trend followers. The best strategy is to avoid the middle like the plague.

Dennis believes that one of the worst mistakes a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. According to his own estimate, 95 percent of his profits have come from only 5 percent of his trades.

One particularly useful piece of advice offered by Dennis is that the times when you least want to think about trading—the losing periods—are precisely the times when you need to focus most on trading.

Paul Tudor Jones-The Art of Aggressive Trading

First of all, never play macho man with the market. Second, never overtrade.


Don't ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don't have control. For example, I don't risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading.


The most important rale of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.


One of the things that Tullis taught me was the importance of time. When I trade, I don't just use a price stop, I also use a time stop. If I think a market should break, and it doesn't, I will often get out even if I am not losing any money.

Gary Bielfeldt-Yes, They Do Trade T-Bonds in Peoria

Bielfeldt does not believe in diversification. His trading philosophy is that you
pick one area and become expert at it.


The most important is discipline—I am sure everyone tells you that. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fourth, you must have a willingness to lose; that is also related to adequate capitalization. Fifth, you need a strong desire to
win.

Ed Seykota-Everybody Gets What They Want

In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.

The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.

Psychologically, I tend to alter my activity depending on performance. I tend to be more aggressive after I have been winning, and less so after losses. These tendencies seem OK. In contrast, a costly tendency is to get emotional over a loss and then try to get even with an overly large position.

a. Cut losses.
b. Ride winners.
c. Keep bets small.
d. Follow the rules without question.
e. Know when to break the rules.


Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.

Larry Hite-Respecting Risk

There is a very important message here: People don't change. That is why this whole game works.

First, if you never bet your lifestyle, from a trading standpoint, nothing bad will ever happen to you. Second, if you know what the worst possible outcome is, it gives you tremendous freedom.

Never risk more than 1 percent of total equity on any trade. By only risking 1 percent, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical.

There are really four kinds of trades or bets: good bets, bad bets, winning bets, and losing bets. Most people think that a losing trade was a bad bet. That is absolutely wrong. You can lose money even on a good bet. If the odds on a bet are 50/50 and the payoff is $2 versus a $1 risk, that is a good bet even if you lose.

The speculator can choose to only bet when the odds are in his favor. That is an
important positional advantage.

I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: (1) If you don't bet, you can't win. (2) If you lose all your chips, you can't bet.

Part II-Mostly Stocks

Michael Steinhardt-The Concept of Variant Perception

If you have made a mistake, deal with the mistake; don't compound it.

So when I first started trading, it was like taking candy from a baby.

Recognize that this is a very competitive business, and that when you decide to buy or sell a stock, you are competing with people who have devoted a good portion of their lives to this same endeavor.

The trick is not being a contrarian, but being a contrarian at the right time. Such judgments cannot be made on the basis of simple formulate. The successful contrarian needs to be able to filter out the true opportunities. Steinhardt's filters are a combination of a keen sense of fundamentals and market timing.

William O'Neil-The Art of Stock Selection

O'Neil says, "Great opportunities occur every year in America. Get yourself
prepared and go for it."

In 1988, O'Neil combined his concepts in the book How to Make Money in Stocks, published by McGraw-Hill. The book combines clarity and brevity with excellent and very specific trading advice.

So the first thing I learned about how to get superior performance is not to buy stocks that are near their lows, but to buy stocks that are coming out of broad bases and beginning to make new highs relative to the preceding price base. You are trying to find the beginning of a major move so that you don't waste six or nine months sitting in a stock that is going nowhere.

CANSLIM

The "C" stands for current earnings per share. The best performing stocks showed a 70 percent average increase in earnings for the current quarter over the same quarter in the prior year before they began their major advance.

There is absolutely no reason for a stock to go up if the current earnings are poor.

The "A" in our formula stands for annual earnings per share. In our studies, the prior five-year average annual compounded earnings growth rate of outstanding performing stocks at their early emerging stage was 24 percent. Ideally, each year's earnings per share should show an increase over the prior year's earnings.

The "N" in our formula stands for something new. The "new" can be a new product or service, a change in the industry, or new management. In our research we found that 95 percent of the greatest winners had something new that fell within these categories. The "new" also refers to a new high price for the stock. In our seminars we find that 98 percent of investors are unwilling to buy a stock at a new high. Yet, it is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.

The "S" in the formula stands for shares outstanding. Ninety-five percent of the stocks that performed best in our studies had less than twenty-five million shares of capitalization during the period when they had their best performance. The average capitalization of all of these stocks was 11.8 million shares, while the median figure was only 4.6 million. Many institutional investors handicap themselves by restricting their purchases to only large-capitalization companies. By doing so, they automatically eliminate some of the best growth companies.

The "L" in our formula stands for leader or laggard. The 500 best-performing stocks during the 1953-1985 period had an average relative strength of 87 before their major price increase actually began.

The "I" in the formula stands for institutional sponsorship. The institutional buyers are by far the largest source of demand for stocks. Leading stocks usually have institutional backing. However, although some institutional sponsorship is desired, excessive sponsorship is not, because it would be a source of large selling if anything went wrong with the company or the market in general. This
is why the most widely owned institutional stocks can be poor performers. By the time a company's performance is so obvious that almost all institutions own a stock, it is probably too late to buy.

The "M" in our formula stands for market. Three out of four stocks will go in the same direction as a significant move in the market averages. That is why you need to learn how to interpret price and volume on a daily basis for signs that the market has topped.

The idea is to buy when there is the least probability of a loss. If you buy within the base, the stock will frequently fluctuate 10 or 15 percent in normal trading action, and it is very easy to get shaken out of the position. But if I buy at exactly the right time, the stock is usually not going to go down to my maximum 7 percent stop-loss point.


Top formations in the market averages occur in only one of two ways. First, the average moves up to a new high, but does so on low volume. This tells you that the demand for stocks is poor at that point and that the rally is vulnerable. Second, volume surges for several days, but there is very little, if any, upside price progress as measured by market closes. In this latter case, there may not
be a pickup in volume when the market initially tops, since the distribution has taken place on the way up.


Another way to determine the direction of the general market is to focus on how the leading stocks are performing. If the stocks that have been leading the bull market start breaking down, that is a major sign the market has topped.

The following list of common mistakes is excerpted from O'Neil's book How to Make Money in Stocks, published by McGraw-Hill in 1988.

1.Most investors never get past the starting gate because they do not use good selection criteria. They do not know what to look for to find a successful stock. Therefore, they buy fourth-rate "nothing-to-write-home-about" stocks that are not acting particularly well in the marketplace and are not real market leaders.

2.A good way to ensure miserable results is to buy on the way down in price; a declining stock seems a real bargain because it's cheaper than it was a few months earlier. For example, an acquaintance of mine bought International Harvester at $19 in March 1981 because it was down in price sharply and seemed a great bargain. This was his first investment, and he made the classic tyro's mistake. He bought a stock near its low for the year. As it turned out, the company was in serious trouble and was headed, at the time, for possible bankruptcy.

3.An even worse habit is to average down in your buying, rather than up. If you buy a stock at $40 and then buy more at $30 and average out your cost at $35, you are following up your losers and mistakes by putting good money after bad. This amateur strategy can produce serious losses and weigh you down with a few big losers.

4.The public loves to buy cheap stocks selling at low prices per share. They incorrectly feel it's wiser to buy more shares of stock in round lots of 100 or 1,000 shares, and this makes them feel better, perhaps more important. You would be better off buying 30 or 50 shares of higher-priced, sounder companies. You must think in terms of the number of dollars you are investing, not the number of shares you can buy. Buy the best merchandise available, not the poorest. The appeal of a $2, $5, or $10 stock seems irresistible. But most stocks selling for $10 or lower are there because the companies have either been inferior in the past or have had something wrong with them recently. Stocks are like anything else. You can't buy the best quality at the cheapest price!
It usually costs more in commissions and markups to buy low-priced stocks, and your risk is greater, since cheap stocks can drop 15 to 20 percent faster than most higher-priced stocks. Professionals and institutions will not normally buy the $5 and $10 stocks, so you have a much poorer grade following and support for these low-quality securities. As discussed earlier, institutional sponsorship is one of the ingredients needed to help propel a stock higher in price.

5.First-time speculators want to make a killing in the market. They want too much, too fast, without doing the necessary study and preparation or acquiring the essential methods and skills. They are looking for an easy way to make a quick buck without spending any time or effort really learning what they are doing.

6.Mainstream America delights in buying on tips, rumors, stories, and advisory service recommendations. In other words, they are willing to risk their hard-earned money on what someone else says, rather than on knowing for sure what they are doing themselves. Most rumors are false, and even if a tip is correct, the stock ironically will, in many cases, go down in price.

7.Investors buy second-rate stocks because of dividends or low price/earnings ratios. Dividends are not as important as earnings per share; in fact, the more a company pays in dividends, the weaker the company may be because it may have to pay high interest rates to replenish internally needed funds that were paid out in the form of dividends. An investor can lose the amount of a dividend in
one or two days' fluctuation in the price of the stock. A low P/E, of course, is probably low because the company's past record is inferior.

8.People buy company names they are familiar with, names they know. Just because you used to work for General Motors doesn't make General Motors necessarily a good stock to buy. Many of the best investments will be names you won't know very well but could and should know if you would do a little studying and research.

9.Most investors are not able to find good information and advice. Many, if they had sound advice, would not recognize or follow it. The average friend, stockbroker, or advisory service could be a source of losing advice. It is always the exceedingly small minority of your friends, brokers, or advisory services that are successful enough in the market themselves that merit your consideration. Outstanding stockbrokers or advisory services are no more frequent than are outstanding doctors, lawyers, or baseball players. Only one out of nine baseball players that sign professional contracts ever make it to the big leagues. And, of course, the majority of ballplayers that graduate from college are not even good enough to sign a professional contract,

10. Over 98 percent of the masses are afraid to buy a stock that is beginning to go into new high ground, pricewise. It just seems too high to them. Personal feelings and opinions are far less accurate than markets.

11.The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly.

12. In a similar vein, investors cash in small, easy-to-take profits and hold their losers. This tactic is exactly the opposite of correct investment procedure. Investors will sell a stock with a profit before they will sell one with a loss.

13.Individual investors worry too much about taxes and commissions. Your key objective should be to first make a net profit. Excessive worrying about taxes usually leads to unsound investments in the hope of achieving a tax shelter. At other times in the past, investors lost a good profit by holding on too long, trying to get a long-term capital gain. Some investors, even erroneously,
convince themselves they can't sell because of taxes—strong ego, weak judgment.
Commission costs of buying or selling stocks, especially through a discount broker, are a relatively minor factor, compared to more important aspects such as making the right decisions in the first place and taking action when needed. One of the great advantages of owning stock over real estate is the substantially lower commission and instant marketability and liquidity. This enables you to
protect yourself quickly at a low cost or to take advantage of highly profitable new trends as they continually evolve.

14.The multitude speculates in options too much because they think it is a way to get rich quick. When they buy options, they incorrectly concentrate entirely in shorter-term, lower-priced options that involve greater volatility and risk rather than in longer-term options. The limited time period works against short-term option holders. Many options speculators also write what are referred to
as "naked options," which are nothing but taking a great risk for a potentially small reward and, therefore, a relatively unsound investment procedure.

15.Novice investors like to put price limits on their buy-and-sell orders. They rarely place market orders. This procedure is poor because the investor is quibbling for eighths and quarters of a point, rather than emphasizing the more important and larger overall movement. Limit orders eventually result in your completely missing the market and not getting out of stocks that should be sold to avoid substantial losses.

16.Some investors have trouble making decisions to buy or sell. In other words, they vacillate and can't make up their minds. They are unsure because they really don't know what they are doing. They do not have a plan, a set of principles, or rules to guide them and, therefore, are uncertain of what they should be doing.

17.Most investors cannot look at stocks objectively. They are always hoping and having favorites, and they rely on their hopes and personal opinions rather than paying attention to the opinion of the marketplace, which is more frequently right.

18.Investors are usually influenced by things that are not really crucial, such as stock splits, increased dividends, news announcements, and brokerage firm or advisory recommendations.

David Ryan-Stock Investment as a Treasure Hunt

Every time I buy a stock, I write down the reasons why I bought it.

I would probably place relative strength first, then EPS. Many times the relative strength takes off before that big earnings report comes out.

I check the number of shares outstanding. I am looking for stocks with less than thirty million shares and preferably only five to ten million shares.

I usually hold my big winners for about six to twelve months, stocks that aren't that strong about three months, and my losers less than two weeks.

Right, because no one ahead of you is at a loss and wants to get out at the first opportunity. Everybody has a profit; everybody is happy.

If it reenters its base, I have a rule to cut at least 50 percent of the position.

Stocks should be at a profit the first day you buy them. In fact, having a profit on the first day is one of the best indicators that you are going to make money on the trade.

Divergence between the Dow and the daily advance/decline line. The advance/decline tends to top out a few months before the Dow does.

今日交易

北美市场受亚洲、欧洲经济、政治不利形势的影响，开市大跌，然后反弹。收市下跌近一个点。近来市场在小范围内震荡，周期很短。

调整了一下仓位，结束了$TD的空头，损失10%。结束了$BMO多头，获利1%。还是损失大。买入了五月$OTC看空期权(http://seekingalpha.com/article/507351-14-outperforming-tech-stocks-being-sold-off-by-hedge-funds)。

今日市场

明天是美国银行发布季报，手里还有较多的股票仓位。此前其它大银行的营业数据一般，摆脱了危机，但还在疲软中。估计美银也一样，而且是较差的一个。富国银行相对好些。

昨天市后发布的$IBM，$INTC数据还好，比市场预期好，但是不及潜在的预期。$IBM下跌较大，带动市场下跌。近来指数的升降和$AAPL的大幅波动有一定关系，其在各指数中占据了相当的比例。

今日市场

市场大涨，各主要指数上升1.5%。在当前调整阶段，出现如此大的涨幅有些意外。近期可能还是熊市，中长期的牛市还没有结束。计划在高点尝试做空。

锻炼总结

锻炼三个月了。近来主要是锻炼耐力，再增强一些力量。很少游泳了。再过几周就不去健身房了，天气暖和了，应该进行户外锻炼。可以在林间小路和湖边跑步。春天了，湖边的大雁、天鹅快有下一代了。小区树林里的那几家鹿也该生小鹿了，希望它们都安全。有一天清晨看见它们过马路，停下车等它们过去。如果在夜里视线不好，就容易出事故。说起来，还是人类侵占了动物的生存空间。

上周用仪器测量了一下脂肪比例，14%。又好于公司的两位猛男。（其中一位一个月没有吃大米，本希望脂肪比例会下降一些，结果脂肪量还上升了。一路上不停地抱怨-做了如此大的努力，竟然是负结果。他是个典型吃货，不吃米一定吃了不少面粉食物。看看他三百五十磅的体重，像怨妇一样诉苦体形，真是想笑）

再过两个月要做一些体力工作了，一定先做好准备。看看自己能不能半天卸一个40尺柜的货物。

开始练习慢跑了，准备参加个10公里跑步活动。不是比赛性质的，是公益跑步。从来没有跑过10公里，挑战一下自己吧。